Oscar Picks

Oscar Picks 2015

There are picks to be made so I’ll get straight to it.  I’m adding each movies betting odds as of 4:30 this afternoon and seeing how much money I would make(lose) if I dropped $10 on each pick.  On we go.

Best Picture

Birdman

Odds: 4/9

I’ll start with the favorite.  Birdman was a very well done movie.  It was filmed to make it look like they got everything in one take, which was very cool.  The acting was swell and I thought the ending was decent for being ambiguous.  

Candy and a Movie Rating: 7.2

Boyhood

Odds: 8/5

Boyhood, (aka ASAB(all stepdads are bastards)) the movie that took 12 years to make.  Filming it over 11 years was a very cool idea but the movie itself was very underwhelming.  You’d think with all that time that they would be able to think about a little story every once in a while.  Also I bet they wished that the kid grew up to be an actor.

Candy and a Movie Rating: 6.5

American Sniper

Odds: 9/1

Now this was a solid movie.  Great acting by Cooper and cool battle scenes.  Didn’t suck me in super emotionally though. 

Candy and a Movie Rating: 7.4

The Imitation Game

Odds: 33/1

Every movie from here on is a big long shot now.  Sherlock sure can act.  I knew very little about the story so it was cool to learn a little while watching. 

Candy and a Movie Rating: 7.5

Selma

40/1

I just finished Selma like 30 minutes ago.  Actor who played MLK did a really good job, especially delivering speeches and the violence was definitely a little powerful.  Not as good as some of these others but I thought it deserved its place being nominated. 

Rating: 6.9

The Grand Budapest Hotel

Odds: 50/1

Wes Anderson makes a very Wes Anderson movie.  I liked it but it wasn’t his best. 

Rating: 7.3

Whiplash

66/1

Whiplash definitely had the best ending of any of these movies.  Also out of all of the best pictures, it would be the first that I watched again.

Rating: 7.9

Theory of Everything

66/1

I thought this movie was kind of a well acted, high budget lifetime channel movie or something.  What I’m saying is that I don’t see all of the love.  Is it decent?  Sure but there are other movies more deserving to be nominated.

Rating: 6.3

My pick: I’m going Birdman.  It wasn’t my favorite but I can’t deny how well it was made.  So that’s a $10 bet to win $4.44  This would be a stupid bet to make in real life so don’t actually do it viewers.

How I liked them:

1. Whiplash

2. Imitation Game

3. American Sniper

4. The Grand Budapest Hotel

5. Birdman

6. Selma

7. Boyhood

8. Theory of Everything

Best Director

Foxcatcher hasn’t been mentioned so I’ll talk about that first.  This movie was slow but I liked the way it built tension.  Steve Carrell and Channing Tatum were really good while Mark Ruffalo was solid himself.  I’d say it is worth the one time watch.

Rating: 6.8

O.k., so the directors…

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Birdman)

1/2

Inarritu is the slight favorite at the moment.  Like I said before, the movie is very well done.  I’ve only seen one other of his movies, Amores Perros, and I liked it.  Babel, 21 Grams and Biutiful are movies I always meant to see.  He did a good job.

Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

6/5

Boyhood was a very novel movie and if he wins, it’s because of the idea of Boyhood more than the execution.

Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

25/1

He has his own style and they are always at least decent movies.  Not a real chance here though.

Morten Tyldum

50/1

Does this guy have a name that could be in Game of Thrones or what?  Headhunters has been on my watch list for a long time and I didn’t know he made that until just now.  This was the first I’ve seen of him and I liked it.

Bennent Miller

50/1

I know they say people with three first names usually turn out to be serial killers but I have no idea what people with 2 last names turn into.  Right now it’s a director with no chance of winning.

My pick is Linklater. $10 wins me $12.  That’s action I like.  After that my order would be Inarritu, Anderson, Tyldum,  and then Miller

Best Actor

All of the movies have been covered already so no need for filler.

Eddie Redmayne (Theory of Everything)

2/7

He’s a pretty large favorite at the moment.  I can’t really say more than he really did become Hawking.

Michael Keaton (Birdman)

3/1

I’ve been digging the Keaton comeback (other than Need for Speed) and it’s good to see him nominated because he did a good job.

Bradley Cooper (American Sniper)

7/1

He’s come a long way since The Hangover right?  Did a wonderful job with the emotional scenes as well as the combat.

Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game)

28/1

Played a more reserved version of Sherlock pretty much and did a great job.  Did call black people colored in real life though.  Total Sherlock move

Steve Carrell (Foxcatcher)

50/1

He’s not winning although this was his best acting job yet.  Other than one or two lines, I never saw Michael Scott.

I’m picking Keaton in the upset although Redmayne winning would be deserving too.  $10 to win $30

The others in order would be Redmayne, Cooper, Cumberbatch, Carrell/

Best Actress

Running out of time so I’ll hit the movies that haven’t been mentioned yet real quick now, give my winners and my rankings.  Boom

Still Alice was pretty sad but worth the watch.  All about Moore’s performance.  6.9

Gone Girl sure was a wild.  I’d watch it again.  Pike certainly made me feel some things and did a good job.  7.3

I didn’t care for Wild all that much.  Tracks was basically a better version of the same movie.  6.3

Two Days, One Night is a very simple but good movie.  Cotillard carried the movie.  7.0

Nominees

Julianne Moore (Still Alice) 1/50

Reese Witherspoon (Wild)  12/1

Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl) 25/1

Felicity Jones (Theory of Everything) 40/1

Marion Cotillard (Two Days, One Night) 50/1

My Pick: Julliane Moore.  $10 wins me an awful $0.20.  She’s a big favorite.

My Rankings: Moore, Cotillard, Pike, Jones, Witherspoon

Supporting Actor

Jk Simmons is about all I need to say.  Everyone else rightfully has no chance.  Only movie not mentioned yet was The Judge.  It was a pretty simple watch.  Worth seeing one time.  6.8

Jk Simmons (Whiplash)1/50

Edward Norton (Birdman) 12/1

Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher) 16/1

Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) 33/1

Robert Duvall (The Judge)  33/1

Picking Simmons again for another $10 to win $0.20. 

My Rankings; Simmons, Norton, Duvall, Ruffalo, Hawke.  I’m not sure why Hawke is here.

Supporting Actress

Into the Woods is the only unmentioned one here.  It wins the award for dirtiest kids movie of the year.  Didn’t like it at all (usually I’d be really into the dirtiest kids movie) and I’d say it’s not worth the watch.  4.9 

Patricia Arquette (Boyhood) 1/50

Emma Stone (Birdman) 14/1

Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) 25/1

Kiera Knightley (The Imitation Game) 25/1

Laura Dern (Wild) 25/1

My Pick: Arquette $10 to win $0.20 again.  Big favorites for all of these lately.

My Ranking:  This is the weakest category performance wise so far.  Arquette, Dern, Knightley, Streep, Stone

Best Adapted Screenplay

One new addition is Inherent Vice.  Liked it better than The Master but still not close to There Will Be Blood level for the other Anderson Director

The Imitation Game 2/5

Whiplash 5/2

The Theory of Everything 5/1

American Sniper 16/1

Inherent Vice 33/1

My Pick: Tough call between Imitation Game and Sniper.  Going with the favorite, Game, at $10 to win $4

My Ranking: The Imitation Game, American Sniper, Whiplash, The Theory of Everything, Inherent Vice

Original Screenplay

I really liked Foxcatcher a lot.  Worth multiple watches in my opinion.  7.9

The Grand Budapest Hotel 4/9

Birdman 3/2

Boyhood 12/1

Foxcatcher 50/1

Nightcrawler 50/1

My Pick: Birdman $10 to win $15

My Ranking: Nightcrawler, Birdman, Budapest, Foxcatcher, Boyhood

Animated Feature

Here’s the first category where I haven’t seen one.  I couldn’t find the Song of the Sea anywhere, so if it wins, it doesn’t count here.  I didn’t care for How to Train Your Dragon 2.  Liked the first much better 5.8.   Big Hero 6 was very enjoyable.  I think I’ve seen it twice while babysitting now and it was good both time.  7.0.  The Tale of Princess Kaguya looks pretty beautiful.  I’m a fan of the watercolor looking Japanese movies.  Story itself was ok.  Wouldn’t call it a must watch though.  6.0.  The Boxtrolls was stale.  Not worth the watch.  5.0

HTTYD2 1/4

Big Hero 6 5/2

Song of the Sea 16/1

The Tale of Princess Kaguya 16/1

The Boxtrolls 18/1

My Pick: It would be The Lego Movie because it was better than all of these.  I guess I’ll pick the favorite, Dragon, because I don’t think the old Academy members will pick a superhero movie.  $10 wins $2.5

My Ranking: Big Hero 6, Tale of Princess Kaguya, HTTYD2, Boxtrolls

Best Foreign Film

I didn’t see Timbuktu or Wild Tales (really wanted to see this one) so again if they win, this doesn’t count.  Ida was a really great looking black and white polish movie that is definitely worth the watch.  7.3.  A little harsh though.  Leviathan is the Russian entry and is great looking although the story is insanely harsh. I thought it was worth the watch but make sure you know what you’re are getting into (I didn’t).  6.9.  Tangerines has the be the first Estonian movie I’ve ever seen and I liked it a lot.  Totally worth the watch.  7.2.  Also you might here that Force Majeure was a snub but I disagree.  It was pretty good but not as good as these 3.

Ida 2/5

Leviathan 11/5

Wild Tales 8/1

Timbuktu 25/1

Tangerines 33/1

My Pick: Ida $10 to win $4

My Ranking: Ida, Tangerines, Leviathan

Best Documentary Feature

Let me start by saying 20 Feet from Stardom beating Act of Killing last year was terrible.  Never should have happened.  Anyway, this year I didn’t see Salt of the Earth.  CitizenFour had me interested in a very uninteresting topic.  6.4  Virunga was a doc set in Africa so you know it’s going to be about people going through some things.  Very good.  6.8.  Finding Vivian Maier was pretty boring.  Only watch if you really want to.  6.0  Last Days In Vietnam had some good stories.  6.4

CitizenFour 1/8

Virunga 4/1

Finding Vivian Maier 14/1

Last Days in Vietnam 25/1

The Salt of the Earth 25/1

My Pick: CitizenFour  $10 to win $1.25

Best Original Score

Interstellar was a whole thing.  I like Nolan movies a lot so I'll be watching it again.  7.5.  Mr. Turner didn't really do much for me but Peter Pettigrew did a really solid job acting.  There were a couple of very cool shots too.  6.8

Theory of Everything 4/7

Budapest 7/5

Imitation Game 10/1

Interstellar 12/1

Mr. Turner 50/1

My Pick: Theory of Everything $10 to win $5.71.  When you actually notice the score, you know it’s good

My Ranking: Theory of everything, Interstellar, Budapest, Imitation Game, Turner

Best Original Song

Haven’t heard the Beyond the Lights or Glen Campbell song

The Lego movie was my favorite animated movie this year.  7.2  Multiple watches.  Begin Again was a good easy movie.  Like Ruffalo more in this than Foxcatcher.  6.6

Glory(Selma) 1/5

Everything is Awesome (The Lego Movie) 4/1

I’m Not Gonna Miss You (GC) 9/1

Lost Stars (Begin Again) 10/1

Grateful (BtL) 33/1

My Pick: Glory $10 to win $2 although I think The Lego Movie should win something so i'll be rooting for it.

My Ranking: Lego, Selma, Begin Again

Costume Design

Generally I think most people didn't care for Maleficent but I thought it was better than I expected.  6.5

Budapest 1/10

Into the Woods 9/2

Maleficent 20/1

Mr. Turner 20/1

Inherent Vice 25/1

My Pick: Budapest $10 to win $1

My Ranking: Budapest, Maleficent, Mr. Turner, Into the Woods, Inherent Vice

Animated Short

I only saw Feast so that’s my pick.  This Category won’t count but I’ll give you the odds anyway.

Feast 1/4

The Dam Keeper 7/2

The Bigger Picture 6/1

A Single Life 20/1

Me and my Moulton 20/1

Best Live Action Short

Didn’t see any.

The Phone Call 4/9

Boogaloo and Graham 3/1

Butter Lamp 6/1

Parvaneh 8/1

Aya 12/1 

I guess I’ll go with the favorite

Best Production Design

Budapest 1/12

Into the Woods 5/1

Mr. Turner 12/1

Interstellar 22/1

Imitation Game 25/1

My Pick: Budapest $10 to win $0.83.  The sets were my favorite part of the movie

My Ranking: Budapest, Interstellar, Turner, Woods, Imitation Game

Visual Effects

I didn't see the Franco Planet of the Apes but watched this one anyway.  It wasn't bad.  6.5.  Guardians of the Galaxy was a lot of fun and one of my favorites this year.  7.4  X-Men was a little disappointing.  I don't really like McAvoy 6.6  Winter Soldier was a lot better than the first 6.9

Interstellar 1/5

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes 11/4

Guardians of the Galaxy 7/1

X-Men: Days of Future Past 40/1

Captain America: The Winter Soldier 50/1

My Pick: Interstellar $10 to win $2

My Ranking: Interstellar, Guardians, Apes, X-Men, Captain America

Cinematography

Unbroken was a pretty good biopic that got a little cheesy at times.  6.7

Birdman 1/12

Budapest 5/1

Ida 16/1

Unbroken 16/1

Turner 33/1

My Pick: Birdman $10 to win $.83

My Ranking: Birdman, Ida, Budapest, Turner, Unbroken

Makeup and Hairstyling

Budapest 1/7

Guardians of the Galaxy 7/2

Foxcatcher 8/1

My Pick: Guardians $10 to win $35

Ranking: Guardians, Budapest, Foxcatcher

Film Editing

Boyhood 1/5

Whiplash 13/5

American Sniper 10/1

Budapest 25/1

Imitation Game 25/1

My Pick: Boyhood $10 to win $2.  They had 12 years of stuff to edit

Ranking: My order of favorites for once

The rest of these don’t have odds

Best Documentary Short

I only saw 2, Crisis Hotline and Our Curse so if it’s not one of those, it won’t count.  Liked Curse better

Sound Editing

The Hobbit was the same old thing as you've heard and was kind of a let down.  6.4

Pick: American Sniper

Ranking: American Sniper, Interstellar, Hobbit, Birdman, Unbroken

Sound Mixing

Pick: Whiplash

Ranking: Whiplash, American Sniper, Interstellar, Birdman, Unbroken